Interest rates continue to increase as the momentum builds that the Fed will begin tapering its QEs sooner than what had been thought as little as three weeks ago. The US 10 in May increased frm 1.63% to 2.16% last Friday and 30 yr MBSs increased 30 basis points in rate during the month. Much of the April and May data that has been released so far has been a little stronger than forecasts. German bunds fell, with 10-year yields rising to the most in three months (presently 1.55%), after Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said the U.S. asset-purchase stimulus program might end this year. Williams is not a voting member at the FOMC told reports the Fed may start tapering this summer and end its easing’s by the end of the year. Yet another Fed official with his thoughts; if he is correct the speed of the Fed’s withdrawal would be swifter than markets presently believe.
The Fed has two mandates; keep unemployment low and guard against inflation; inflation is lower than the Fed’s 2.0% target (1.5%) and the employment sector is still soft, although improving—-at least based on the April data released last month. Forecasting with any degree of accuracy the employment report is more a dart throw, generally the report deviates in wide ranges compared to the consensus estimates that this morning call for non-farm jobs in May increasing 167K and private jobs +178K; it is a high probability the actual data will be substantially different.
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